I spent over 400 quid on betting on EURO Cup 2024 and I lost 144.
Of course, it might not sound too much, but the point I want to make is not how much I lost rather what lessons I got from it and what YOU can to do avoid.
Realisations stroke me last night when I lost 18 consecutive bets. No matter what strategy I use or how smart I think I can beat the bookmaker, statistically I will lose on the long run, this is how the bookmakers make money from the bettors.
Though I was new to sports betting and I definitely made some mistakes every beginners would, I tried two strategies and I believed in the beginning that I can win (of course I didn’t):
- Following big live streamers who have good historical betting history.
- Betting on exact scores based on statistics.
Let me briefly explain the second I little bit.
The basic idea is to use the previous match scores to predict the most likely score of the current match. For instance, if 5 out of 10 matches had 1-1, then I assume the current match could have 50% chance ends up with 1-1.
They look ok, right?
You see in 30 matches in the group stage, 8 ends with 1-1 and 6 ends with 1-0 or 0-1. So statistically if I bet every upcoming games to end as 1-1 or 1-0 (favourite wins), I should have 46.7% (14/30) of chance to win, is it the case?
Well, worked a bit but definitely way off my expectation. I won 2 bets out of 23. Roughly 9% chance. That is to say, if I put 5 quid on such a score bet, the chance of winning is 9%, while the Return is 900% (5+5 stake for 35+55 Return). However, the profitable return should be at least greater than 1100% (1/9%)!
Though the above calculation has some caveats, you can read the takeaway:
The expected return set by the bookmaker is LESS THAN the risks you take!
There was one old Chinese saying goes: (十赌九输SHI DU JIU SHU)" literally means ten bets nine lose", I think this perfectly summarises the essence of betting.
Don’t get me wrong, I am aware a lot of smart yet equally lucky guys who can beat the bookmaker even in the long term. But they use different strategies that sometimes it gets them banned from the bookmakers.
If you read to here and still have a feeling that you can win, here I list some of my tips for you:
- (for beginners) know the language and terms (what are Asian lines, what are split Asian lines etc. USE GOOGLE and YOUTUBE)
- Budget the stake for each bet, regardless of how confident you think you can win.
- Please DO NOT chase the loss (you often end up losing MORE) and let it go.
GOOD LUCK!